Tariff trouble: What Trump's new threat could cost UK small firms

If you sell into the US, or you sit anywhere in a supply chain that does, you'll already be on high alert this week.

President Donald Trump has said he'll impose a 10% tariff on "any and all goods" sent to the United States from eight European countries, including the UK, starting 1 February 2026.

He also said the tariff would rise to 25% from 1 June 2026 unless a deal is reached for the US to purchase Greenland.

Reports suggest the threat is framed as a response to European positions and troop deployments connected to Greenland, rather than a normal change to trade policy.

Matt Hunt, co-founder of The Protein Ball Co, exports a third of his total output to the US and says the move would damage UK and European markets "beyond anything we've seen".

Matt says:

"Nothing's confirmed, but tariff uncertainty makes it harder to plan. We're one of thousands of UK food companies exporting globally, and stability really matters if Britain wants its exporters to keep growing.

"We shifted our focus on the US after how difficult Brexit made exporting. Any new trade barriers or increased tariffs, even just threatened ones, knock confidence at a time when UK brands need clarity, not more friction.

"We ship three containers a month to the US, which is around a third of our business, so even the threat of higher tariffs creates uncertainty.

"Decisions like this can change UK export figures very quickly and directly impact British businesses employing people here at home."

While this is still a threat, not a settled new trading regime, the details that decide the real impact – what products, what exemptions, how it's enforced – could change quickly.

For one firm, however, it was one threat too far. Bilston manufacturing company Bowers & Jones has pulled out of a US deal worth £400,000, according to the BBC.

What we know so far

• A 10% tariff from 1 February 2026 on goods sent to the US from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the UK.

• A stated intention to increase that to 25% from 1 June 2026 if there's no deal over Greenland.

• Europe is condemning the move, and the EU is discussing how to respond – which includes tools for retaliation – even as it tries to prevent the situation escalating.

What this could mean for UK small businesses

Even a 10% tariff can bite hard for smaller de minimis exporters, with less pricing power, thinner margins and less of a cash flow buffer, unless the extra cost is added to the price.

• Your US sales could become harder to close: If prices are raised, there's a chance demand drops as customers see less value.

• Your contract terms suddenly matter a lot: Who pays duty depends on the terms you agreed. If your paperwork is vague, you can end up absorbing unexpected costs or falling into disputes with buyers. This is where small firms often get caught out.

• You can be hit even if you do not export: Uncertainty alone can mean delayed orders, lower stock appetite, and more cautious spending, especially if you supply a UK firm that exports to the US.

Gareth Austin-Jones, co-founder of UK-based shoe firm Cocorose London, said while export is no longer a large part of his business, the company does export products to loyal customers in the US.

He says:

"We've had to make the customer liable for all import costs, so at the moment it's 10%.

"When it goes up, we'll do our best to notify customers but they will feel that increased cost – and, in most cases, reconsider their purchase."

Three things to do this week

If you trade with the US, or plan to, these steps will put you in a stronger position fast.

1. Work out your exposure in 30 minutes: List your US products, US revenue share, top US buyers and what you plan to ship in the next 60 days. If it's small but growing, still do it. It tells you whether this is a watch item or a real risk.

2. Check who pays duty before the next shipment: Pull your last few US orders and confirm who's responsible for duties and import taxes. If you're not sure, ask your buyer directly and put it in writing.

3. Speak to your US buyer now, while this is still fluid: If you sell into the US, now's a good time to stay in regular contact with buyers and partners. Make sure you both have the same understanding of what's being reported and avoid surprises if costs or timelines shift.

What happens next

No-one knows! If you're deciding whether to change plans, these are the signals that matter:

• Whether the US publishes operational detail on coverage and enforcement.

• Whether the UK and EU move into a formal trade response, or keep this mainly diplomatic.

• Whether the timeline shifts, or the threat is used as leverage and then parked.

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